Jermain Taylor vs Kelly Pavlik: What's it gonna be?

Belts are neat, but Saturday's about a lot more then accessories

For the Middleweight Championship of the World
Jermain "Bad Intentions" Taylor, 27-0(17 KO) vs Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik, 31-0(28 KO)
12 Rounds, Saturday Night, HBO, Card Starts at 8:15 with potential star Andre Berto vs veteran trial horse, David Estrada.

In the spring of 2001, way back when Nebraska was a legitimate National Championship contender on the gridiron(Takes a shot at himself, who does that?), a really well put together kid from Arkansas started belting out nobodies and part time boxers on the undercards of many of the season's biggest PPVs. Jermain Taylor cruised thru the early part of his career with an ease that gave you hope for a legit American middleweight to take the reigns for the soon to retire, or so we thought, Bernard Hopkins. And all the way up thru his first showdown with Bernard in 2005, the only question marks about Jermain Taylor's game was why he was occasionally unable to finish off some of the over the hill contenders and trial horses(Like William Joppy and Alfredo Cuevas.) when he was clearly dominating the fight. Many people, including myself, did not think it was time for Jermain to climb in the ring with someone like Hopkins. Hopkins had quite simply destroyed Tito Trinidad's career in 2001, and though he clearly was no longer a 12 round, 3 minute per round fighter, Bernard when riled could still bring a bigger stick then Jermain had ever seen.

Now Jermain "won" the fight with Bernard, and the rematch five months later, but in retrospect it may have been the worst thing that ever happened to his development. Quite simply Jermain has not moved forward as a fighter, not one bit, since what could have been career building victories over Hopkins. He's regressed, he became a safety-first fighter. The saddest thing I've seen in recent boxing was Jermain Taylor BACKING UP when Cory Spinks put "pressure" on him in his most recent controversial decision win.

And now, he faces the best fighter he's ever been in the ring with, not the best boxer, the best fighter. Kelly Pavlik hits like a truck. His demolition of Edison Miranda in what began as a two-way slugfest and ended as a one-way trip to the woodshed for Miranda set off all kinds of speculation about this fight. If Taylor can't back up blown up JR Middleweights like Winky, Spinks and Kassim Ouma...how is he going to back up a guy who's just as strong and just as big as he is? And with Jermain struggling with his "craft"(his ability to place and defense and use his feet to set himself up), how is he ever going to use his physical advantages in this fight(Handspeed, overall athleticism.)?

I don't know the answers to those questions, the only thing I'm sure of is that Kelly Pavlik is going to attack Jermain Taylor Saturday night, it may be more methodically then I expect, but it will come. And there is not one single thing in Jermain's last five fights that leads me to believe he will have the answers for Pavlik. But that may be a good thing, Jermain Taylor is struggling for an identity as a fighter other then that of "Champion". Is he a boxer? No. Is he a brawler? No. Does he have a lot of heart? We suspect he might, but we don't know. But maybe fighting someone who won't let him coast, someone who won't let him peck away at the jab and who will make him pay when he's not busy or falls into the ropes, maybe that's the answer to find out about Jermain Taylor.

One way or another we get answers on Saturday night. I just don't have anything concrete to base a prediction on other then the consistent and concussive power of Kelly Pavlik and the fact that Pavlik knows how he's going to attack Taylor and he knows what he needs to do to beat Taylor. I don't know that Jermain has those answers.

There are questions on Pavlik's side, to be sure. He gets hit a lot, he got cracked hard by Edison Miranda early in that fight(He took it like a fucking animal, but he did get hit cleanly.). And there's also the wild card of Manny Steward, maybe the best offensive trainer in the sport. Has working with Emmanuel paid off for Jermain?

I believe Pavlik wins this fight either by late stoppage or by unanimous(And completely justified) decision. But I don't necessarily believe it's the worst thing that can happen to Taylor, either. Losing will take a lot of the pressure of the "Undefeated Middleweight Champion of the World" label that's been on Jermain Taylor for 3 years now. He can go back to work with some smaller fights and work on his skills as he comes back from the defeat. Pavlik can go on to face the winner of Calzaghe-Kessler in an ultra/uber/mega fight down the road. And then maybe they see each other again when both of them are complete fighters. Maybe.

Prediction: Pavlik by 11th Round TKO

Note: Andre Berto's undercard fight against David Estrada is extremely interesting, given that Berto was nearly knocked unconscious by Cosme Rivera in his last fight before getting off the mat to KO Rivera. Estrada has fought well in his step up fights, but is too limited to beat championship-caliber fighters. Is Berto there? Dunno, we'll be a lot closer to finding out Saturday night.